Breaking down the 9 best bets ahead of the 2018 British Open

All odds courtesy of Bovada…

Short odds

Justin Rose, 16/1

Rose hasn’t enjoyed a lot of success at the Open Championship, but he’s playing as well as any one at tour going into this tournament with 17 top-10 finishes over his last 22 starts . And he’s always played well at Carnoustie. Why? Because of his driver and ability to make tough approach shots. Those are two of the more important factors at the course. — Steven Ruiz

Rickie Fowler, 16/1

Rickie Fowler is going to break through eventually at a major championship, and he comes to Carnoustie playing some of the most consistent golf of his season. An ugly 84 at the U.S. Open spoiled his tournament, but he still salvaged a top-20 finish. Last week at the Scottish Open – an event Fowler has won in the past – he posted a 64 in his opening round and went on to finish in a tie for sixth, on a course that featured similar, super-dry conditions. — Nick Schwartz

(AP Photo/Kamran Jebreili)

Tommy Fleetwood, 22/1

Remember what he did at the ultra-tough U.S. Open in his final round? Dude shot a 63 (!!!). And while he once shot that number at Carnoustie, he says it won’t matter since the conditions are different this time around. But I like the fact that his well-rounded game could lend itself well to a test that could require golfers to be consistent for four days. Plus, doesn’t 22/1 seem like a bargain for a favorite? — Charles Curtis

Middle odds

Jason Day, 33/1

I did a double take when I saw the odds on Day. It’s hard to pass up that kind of value on a major-winner whose game fits Carnoustie as well as Day’s does. He can drive it well off the tee and is one of the tour leaders in scrambling percentage in 2018. And it’s not like he’s played poorly this season. He already has two wins under his belt; if he’s on his game this weekend, he could add a third. — SR

(AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

Tyrrell Hatton, 40/1

Hatton’s proven to be a feast-or-famine kind of player at major championships. He’s got three career top-tens, including a T5 at the 2016 Open, but he also missed all four cuts in 2017. Hatton bounced back with a T6 earlier this year at the U.S. Open, and though he hasn’t won a professional tournament in 2018, he did win the 2016 and 2017 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, multi-course events that include Carnoustie. — NS

Paul Casey, 40/1

You’re going to sense a pattern here: Casey is also a model of consistency  who seems due. Plus, he’s missed just one PGA Tour cut this year and has a whopping 5 top-10s this year, meaning he’s coming in hot. A T-11 at the 2017 Open Championship bodes well, too. — CC

Long odds

Tony Finau, 100/1

Continuing my theme of taking big hitters, I’ll go with Finau, who ranks second in driving distance this season, for my long odds. He’s enjoying a bit of a breakout season but has yet to win in 2018. While it’s unlikely that changes this weekend, he’ll have a chance to make some noise if he can get hot with the putter, which has let him down this year. — SR

Haotong Li, 125/1

At 22, Li has only played in five career majors – but he’s made four cuts and recorded a third-place finish a year ago at Royal Birkdale, going 7-under par on Sunday to shoot up the leaderboard. He has two career wins not the European Tour, including the Dubai Desert Classic earlier this year, where he beat Rory McIlroy by a stroke. At 125/1, he’s got a ton of upside. — NS

Danny Willett, 150/1

The guy wins The Masters in 2016, then falls off completely with struggles with health and his game. Then, we saw the Willett that won the major emerge at the Irish Open and finish T-6. I’ll ride that to a bet on an underdog. — CC

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