DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He’ll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.
Welcome back golf fans. The four Major Championships are now in the books for 2018 as overnight leader, Brooks Koepka, held off held off a ton of challenger’s to win his second major of the season and third of his career. One of those names he was able to hold off was Tiger Woods who opened the event with a 70 and followed it up with back to back 66’s and an incredible final round 64 but eventually came up two strokes short with a runner-up finish. Brooks made the move to #2 in the World while Tiger jumped to #26 which is incredible in itself as he was 650th entering the Hero Challenge at the start of the comeback.
This week the PGA Tour travels to Sedgefield Country Club for the Wyndham Championship, the final event before the FedEx Cup Playoffs begin. The narrative everyone will be talking about this week is that the Top 125 golfers get into the playoffs and many of the players on the bubble are in the field this week. Be sure to check that tab out on my sheet. Here is a look at a few on the positive and negative side of that bubble.
120 – Sam Saunders
121 – Bud Cauley(not in field)
122 – Jhonattan Vegas
123 – Seamus Power
124 – Martin Piller
125 – Tyrone Van Aswegen
126 – Chad Campbell
127 – Robert Garrigus
128 – Corey Conners
129 – Nick Taylor
130 – Tom Lovelady
As for the course, Sedgefield CC is a Par 70 that sits at 7,127 yards on the scorecard and has four Par 3’s, 12 Par 4’s, and two Par 5’s. The fairways are in the average to easy to hit zone which has me looking more at Strokes Gained: Approach this week when analyzing the Ball Striking metric. Looking at quotes from years past, it appears we will see lots of “Less than Driver” strategies off the tee.
Looking at the hole composition below, you will see that eight of the Par 4 holes are between 400 and 450 yards which makes that range very high on my list this week. The greens are average in size but are very undulated with multiple tiers so once again I will be looking very closely at Proximity when breaking down Strokes Gained: Approach. Finally, I will be looking at golfers who have had success on Bermuda greens. With all that said, let’s take a look at the course, past winners, trends, adn the top picks when braeking down course history, current form and the stats model.
Sedgefield Country Club – Greensboro, NC
Par 70 – 7,127 Yards
Greens – Bermuda Grass
**Click the pic above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
Approach Shot Distribution
- Henrik Stenson(-22)
- Si Woo Kim(-21)
- Davis Love III(-17)
- Camilo Villegas(-17)
- Patrick Reed(-14)
Top Stats in the Model
- Strokes Gained: Approach with emphasis on Proximity
- Par 4 Scoring
- Birdie or Better %
One little note before jumping into the article. I use multiple sources for my research to help determine key stats starting with Fantasy National Golf Club and their elite set of tools from course history, hole composition, past performance and much, much more. I also combine it with some of the information on Future of Fantasy including correlated courses and most importantly the quotes from players section to help determine what it takes to win here(key stats). When breaking down ownership and trying to come up with popularity, I love the tools over at FanShareSports as they break down every piece of information on articles and social media mentions to provide us with Tag Counts, Sentiment Ratings, Subject Tags, Salary Differential week to week and much more.
Top Course History Targets
Seeing Webb Simpson at the top of the salary this week(on DraftKings) kind of gives me chills but looking at this very weak field(435 average OWGR) it kinda makes sense. He returns to Sedgefield with some excellent course history having won here back in 2011 and has made eight straight cuts since missing in his first trip back in 2009 and in that time has five Top 5’s and seven Top 25 finishes. Looking at the last 24 rounds data(via FNGC), he ranks 1st in SG: Total, 1st in SG: Ball Striking, and 2nd in DraftKings scoring here. I also talked about the importance of Strokes Gained Approach and looking at the rolling report on Fantasy National, he ranks 8th, 7th, 4th, 12th, 6th over the last 4, 8, 12, 24, and 50 rounds overall. For betting purposes, I don’t particularly like the 15-1 number and will likely look elsewhere this week but for fantasy, I will have plenty of exposure.
The value play when looking at course history this week is Rory Sabbatini. It is a small sample size of three events but since missing the cut in his first trip to Sedgefield back in 2012 he has posted Top 10 finishes in both 2013 and last season. His Strokes Gained: Approach and Proximity stats concern me a bit but where he does stand out in the stats model is his ranks on the sheet of 20th in Good Drive%, 12th in Par 4 Scoring, and 19th in Birdie or Better %. The form has been up and down and after making the cut in 15 straight stroke-play events he has missed two of his last four with a withdraw at the John Deere Classic. He found some form in his last start with a T12 at the RBC Canadain Open and at these prices can be considered in all formats.
Top Current Form Targets
World Golf Ranking (#131)
Vegas Odds (71/1)
The price on FanDuel in the $10K range isn’t overpriced but probably more realistic this week considering he is #1 in my model this week and only $7,500 on DraftKings. I would have to go back and check but I am pretty sure I have not had a golfer ranked at the top anywhere near the $7K range this season. He has only missed four cuts all season in 24 stroke-play events and comes in playing very consistent with eight straight made cuts with a Top 10 and three Top 25 finishes. Looking at the last 24 rounds data, he ranks Top 20 in SG: Total, SG: Ball Striking and Top 6 in SG: App and DraftKings scoring. At his price on DraftKings, he is a lock in my cash game lineups and will also be one of my betting six pack at 71-1 and I will also bet him Each Way Top 5.
Harold Varner III
World Golf Ranking (#164)
Vegas Odds (46/1)
I wouldn’t go as far as labeling Varner a safe cash play this week with an elevated price but he does have a ton of fantasy upside in this field. He has made four straight cuts including a T17, 6th, and T5 in his last three and over a longer sample size has made seven of his last nine cuts with one missed cut coming at the U.S. Open. Looking at the same Last 24 Rounds data as Kirk, Varner ranks 7th in SG: Total, 5th in Ball Striking, 9th in Birdies or Better Gained, and 8th in DraftKings scoring. He missed the cut here in his first trip in 2016 but rebounded in a big way with a T10 last year.
Who the Stats Like
World Golf Ranking (#42)
Vegas Odds (41/1)
— Daniel Berger (@DanielBerger59) August 13, 2018
If you were worried about Berger after nine holes last week when he was six over, don’t be. He battled through and finished T12 at a major and now has a few more days off to get even healthier. That is good news as he fits the stats model well this week ranking 10th in SG: Approach, 12th in SG: Ball Striking and looking at the rolling report on Fantasy National for SG: Approach, he ranks 1st, 4th, 13th, 2nd, 8th, and 3rd in the last 4, 8, 12, 24, and 50 rounds overall. To top it off, he also rates out much better putting on Bermuda grass as he that is what he is used to from growing up. Unless news comes out that he is still experiencing pain in his wrist, I will be using Berger in all formats this week.
World Golf Ranking (#180)
Vegas Odds (101/1)
If you are looking at my sheet, you are likely wondering why I list Werenski in the stats section this week as the only real place he stands out is Proximity as he ranks 30th. What I wanted to do here with the second pick in this range was to look at more current stats coming into the tournament and Werenski definitely fits the model. Over the last 24 rounds(approx six events), he ranks 15th in this field in Birdie or Better Gained, 17th in SG: Total, 8th in SG: Ball Striking, and 11th in DraftKings scoring. He has not been consistent in making cuts over his first two full seasons but does come in with three straight made cuts in stroke play events including a T2 at the Barbasol Championship and finished T10 here last year in his first trip to Sedgefield. He is one of my top value plays for my GPP stars and scrubs lineups.
Tournament Update Thread
**Weather Update(click pic below to get an update of the weather on Windfinder.com)**
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.