Your In-Depth DFS Preview for the British Open
This week’s Open Championship features a course that we have not seen on the PGA Tour in over 10 years. With not much course history at Carnoustie, recent form is going to play a huge factor in analyzing the field. Last year’s winner, Jordan Spieth, came into the week in fantastic form. He had just come off of a win at the Travelers and had two of three finishes inside the Top 15 prior to that. The Open Championship is always a test, so targeting golfers who are playing at a high level coming into the week is crucial.
World No. 1 and No. 2 Shine at the Top
This week’s pricing on DraftKings is fairly soft, which we have become familiar with in major tournaments. With such loaded fields, DraftKings has to give discounts to some range of players to differentiate roster construction. The two players over $11k this week are Dustin Johnson ($11,300) and Rory McIlroy ($11,000). Johnson comes into the week in much more consistent form than McIlroy. Johnson has three Top 10 finishes in a row with no finish this year worse than T17. DailyRoto has him as the favorite to win the Open Championship by a good margin. With some value down the board, Johnson is a nice anchor to your DraftKings lineup. He is the top ranked player in the world for a reason. McIlroy, on the other hand, missed cuts at The Players, and the U.S. Open. Even at this price tag, don’t expect McIlroy to see a drop-off in ownership percentage. He always finds a way to garner some exposure and DailyRoto has McIlroy projected to be just over 15% owned. At just $300 less than Dustin Johnson on DK, McIlroy can be easily faded.
Priced just below the big two rounding out the $10k+ range, is last year’s winner Jordan Spieth ($10,600), Justin Rose ($10,200) and Justin Thomas ($10,000). Of the three, Rose has the best odds to win according to DailyRoto at 4.65%, but is also projected to be the highest owned. Thomas, however, sits right in the middle with a better chance to win than Spieth, but a smaller ownership projection that is showing just above 10%. Though Spieth is the defending champ, he is not the player that he was last year. Spieth comes into Carnoustie making just one of his last three cuts on tour. He is going to get back on track at some point this season, but I don’t think this week is it. From this range, Thomas seems like the safest bet. You get a small discount off of the Top 4 and in return, get the second ranked player in the world. Thomas is a cut-making machine and has a very safe floor at just $10,000. He is 12/12 this season with just one finish outside of the Top 25. He is a nice pivot at the top this week for large field tournaments and is also safe in cash games. Starting your lineup with Thomas leaves you with an $8,000 for your last five roster spots. With such soft pricing, this still allows you some wiggle room when rounding out your team.
Targeting Form off of European Tour
Rickie Fowler $9,700
Though he remains winless this season, Vegas currently gives Rickie Fowler the second-best odds to win this week at the Open Championship. It seems we find ourselves going back for more Fowler every time a major comes around. Are we chasing his first major victory so we don’t miss out on it? Maybe. But it also seems like he comes into each one in such great form. Last week at the Scottish Open, Fowler finished in a tie for sixth after posting back-to-back 68s on the weekend hovering at the top. It was nice seeing Fowler have some success on a links style course a week before the British Open. He has showed signs of improvement prior to this week as well, making his last four cuts on tour, all inside the Top 20. DailyRoto rates him as the second best overall value on DK of anyone priced over $8,800. Fowler is projected to carry a 19.83% ownership, which is the third-highest in the field according to DailyRoto. Fowler can be played in any format this week at Carnoustie.
Tyrrell Hatton $7,900
Though he is one of the more hot and cold players on tour, Tyrell Hatton is currently heating up. In his last three starts worldwide, Hatton has three finishes inside the Top 20, with two of the three being Top 10s. Hatton, like Fowler, started off looking very good at the Scottish Open this past week before coasting into a T9 finish. DailyRoto projects Hatton to be around 13% owned. Spending most of his time playing on the European Tour, Hatton will be ready to play in any type of condition. Look for the 23rd ranked player to ride his hot streak into this week’s Open Championship.
Russell Knox $7,700
Talking about riding a hot streak, Russell Knox has been taking the European Tour by storm in the past month. Though we have not seen Knox on the PGA Tour since the Travelers, he has compiled three straight cuts on the European Tour including a win at the Irish Open, and a T2 in France. His improbable victory at the Irish Open was kept alive with back-to-back putts from deep on the 18th. The first came on the 18th to close out his round, giving him an outside shot of getting into a playoff. The next came in the playoff from the same spot to walk it off. Knox is coming to Carnoustie with as much confidence as anyone in the field. In an interview done by The Courier, Knox stated that he has not played at Carnoustie in at least 15 years. Outside of his success on the Euro Tour, Knox had made five straight cuts on the PGA Tour with three inside the Top 20. One of which, was a T12 at the U.S. Open. If Knox can carry on this form he has shown over the past few weeks, he could be someone to keep an eye on this week at the Open Championship.
Ryan Fox $6,900
A name that is gaining recognition on the European Tour is Ryan Fox. Making eight straight cuts worldwide, Fox has put together two nice outings in the past two weeks. He had a late collapse, losing in the playoff of the Irish Open to Russell Knox for a solo second. Then he bounced back and stormed to a T6 finish at the Scottish Open in a strong field this past week. DailyRoto projects Fox’s ownership to be around 8% this week, but could fall even lower since he is not a well-known name to most Fantasy golfers. Fox is a fine cash game pick at just $6,900, but is better suited for tournaments.
Low Owned Options for DraftKings “Millionaire Maker”
Ownership Projections from DailyRoto.com
Hideki Matsuyama ($8,500) – 9.65% Projected Ownership
Phil Mickelson ($8,100) – 2.99% Projected Ownership
Luke List ($7,500) – 1.85% Projected Ownership
Patrick Cantlay ($7,500) – 2.57% Projected Ownership
Kiradech Aphibarnrat ($7,300) – 0.96% Projected Ownership
Lee Westwood ($7,200) – 5.88% Projected Ownership
Beau Hossler ($6,900) – 2.05% Projected Ownership
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